Draft Days Are Over: The Bills Roster After A Polarizing Draft & Even More Polarizing Late FA Pickups.

So, the spectacle that is the 2024 NFL Draft is done and there was something for everyone to get instantly, irrationally mad at and then slowly realize (or rationalize) many of our first blanch reactions. Personally, I made daily mock drafts and many of the players we took were not on any iteration. And I’m not alone, as content creators who made weekly mock draft videos also noted that the draft certainly did not go as expected.

Tompsett’s point is a truism: we can’t know the true value of any draft for years. In 2014, when we selected Sammy Watkins at 4, most of us, including me, thought he was a sure thing. His was the first jersey I ever owned. He had a few solid enough years before bouncing around the league as the NFL’s best decoy. We can ponder and pontificate but we don’t know.

So, after a week to digest, here’s some ponderance and pontifications on the new status of the Bills roster and a 10-member draft class (plus some UDFAs) that, at the very least, is intriguing. And when passions were just starting to cool off, Beane added a trio of mixed bag free agents to stir the pot a bit more.

Draft picks are in bold, while UDFAs are in italics.

Quarterbacks

Roster Locks/Likely: Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky

Bubble: None

Likely Camp Fodder/PS: Shane Buechele

What is there to say here? (and we’ve added nobody) Josh Allen is a perennial MVP candidate, born leader, and deserves his spot as one of the top QBs of the league. Mitch Trubisky is often a punchline, but he’s won more games than he’s lost, mostly with a meh Bears team. Who knows about Shane Buechele, but if it comes to that, we’re likely doomed for ths season regardless.

Verdict: What do you think?!

Running Backs

Roster Locks/Likely: James Cook, Ray Davis, Ty Johnson

Bubble: Frank Gore, Jr.

Likely Camp Fodder/PS: Darrynton Evans

Ray Davis had a monster season for Kentucky last year with 1129 yards averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He’s got a nose for the end zone with 21 TDs last year, seven of them in the air. Finding an effective change-up back that wins consistently from within the five has been a frustration of the Bills for years, and he may be the answer. He’s also a potential asset in the passing game. Davis has been called a “bowling ball” and arguably that’s what they need to pair with Cook (who by the way had the fourth most rushing yards in the NFL last year).

I’m being generous putting Frank Gore, Jr., in the bubble category, but given his lineage and his almost 3000 yards from scrimmage his last two years at Sounthern Mississippi, I wouldn’t count the UDFA entirely out for a surprise roster spot.

Verdict: The running game, if utilized correctly by Brady, will be a strong point of the Bills offense.

Wide Receivers

Roster Locks/Likely: Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins

Bubble: Chase Claypool, Justin Shorter, Quintez Cephus, KJ Hamler, Tyrell Shavers

Likely Camp Fodder: Xavier Thomas, Lawrence Keys, Bryan Thompson, Andy Isabella

Here’s where Beane and the Bills have garnered the most criticism. Trading with your arch-rival who then takes a WR many wanted didn’t help (although KC would likely have gotten Worthy anyway). Keon Coleman would not have been my choice, but while he ran a slow 40 time, his reels show a must faster player. Moreover, he’s a master of the contested catch. But can he be a WR1 for a team whose former top dog talked his way into a trade to Houston?

Perhaps we need to rethink our desire for a WR1 and what that means. When the Bills went on their winning streak to roar into the playoffs, Stefon Diggs was at best a world-class Watkins-esque decoy. They were actually more effective when Diggs was not on the field. You know what team generally doesn’t have an obvious WR1? The two-year reigning World Champion Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, they have Travis Kelce, but we also have Dalton Kincaid (but we’ll get to that later). Bills Mafia constantly cite the need to get Prime Josh Allen™ some more weapons. Allen literally called for Coleman by name. Who knows better what weapons are good for Allen than our franchise QB.

Khalil Shakir caught almost everything thrown near him and Curtis Samuel is perenially among the tops for yards after the catch, something the Bills receiver corps has been missing for years. Mack Hollins is a solid leadership addition with able hands and is a special teams wizard. Admittedly, it does look pretty thin beyond there.

Justin Shorter, while athletic and once a 5-star recruit, is a complete enigma, having sat on the injured list for his rookie season last year. Quintez Cephus and KJ Hamler are reclamation projects. The former is coming off a yearlong suspension for gambling, while the latter, a one-time second round pick, has never been able to get his career going, due partially to frequent injuries. Brandon Beane mentioned 2023 practice squad member Tyrell Shavers by name, so we can’t completely count him out. Sadly, the dreams of Andy Isabella last year proved to be just that: dreams. However, if our sixth round CB’s kick returning skills fail in the pre-season he might make it that way.

Then, when you think Beane is done with additions to the WR room, he pulls the (on first glance) perplexing move of bringing in the enigmatic former prospect Chase Claypool. The one-time phenom has been practically chased (pun genuinely not intended) out of three cities with character questions abounding. That said, he’s still just 25 and if he could recapture the magic of his rookie Steelers season, when he had almost 1000 yards to go with nine TDs, it could be a sneaky good pickup. I will say that I love the strategy of taking some flyers on cheap young receivers with major upside (Claypool, Hamler, to a lesser extent, Cephus).

Verdict: Not as dire as many fans assert, but far from ideal. Some weird upside. Thankful for existence of the next position group.

Tight Ends

Roster Locks/Likely: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Quinton Morris

Bubble: None

Likely Camp Fodder: Tre McKitty, Zach Davidson

This is another position group where there’s not much to say. Dalton Kincaid looks poised to become a focus of Josh Allen’s offense. Dawson Knox still drops more passes than he should, but also has scored the first TD of the playoffs four years in a row. Quinton Morris has been a more-than-servicable TE3.

Verdict: The top three are entrenched and should mask a possibly lackluster WR group.

Offensive Line

Roster Locks/Likely: Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, La’el Collins, Ryan Van Demark, Sedrick Van Pran-Granger.

Bubble: Alec Anderson, Will Clapp, Tommy Doyle, Tylan Grable

Likely Camp Fodder/PS: Richard Gourage, Kevin Jarvis, Keaton Bills, Gunner Britton, Mike Edwards (not the other Mike Edwards)

Absolute Wild Card: Travis Clayton

Many hands have been wrung over the release of Mitch Morse, meaning they would not be running back the highly rated, lucky-in-health 2023 offensive line. We’ll see how the Connor McGovern/David Edwards experiment goes, but the Bills have certainly tried to balance the loss of Morse and versatile mainstay Ryan Bates with quantity. They drafted three linemen last weekend while already adding three more by the time I’m writing this.

Center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger, along with being an absolute mouthful of a name, is an absolute 5th round steal. In his career at powerhouse Georgia, he allowed just one sack in over 1000 snaps. Tylan Grable is more of a question mark, but the mountain of a tackle from UCF does have future promise. Interestingly, he was a high school QB who started out college as a tight end. It’s a longshot, but who knows.

Seventh round pick Travis Clayton is another thing entirely. The British rugby player has never played a down of American football, but his tape imressed Beane enough to draft him. Given that a player taken by the Bills in the final round was likely to be cut and poached by another team, it’s a savvy gamble. As an international exchange player, Clayton can be stashed on the practice squad without losing a spot.

Oh, yeah, the Bills also drafted a player named Bills, Keaton Bills that is. It’s a cute coincidence, but he was also among ESPN’s top 15 undrafted players.

Verdict: Nothing to see here

Defensive Tackles

Roster Locks/Likely: Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Austin Johnson, DeWayne Carter

Bubble: DeShaun Williams, Eli Ankou

Camp Fodder/PS: Brandon Deen

If Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones stay healthy, they are both top end starters. But given the way the Bills love to protect, they clearly need more. While DeWayne Carter certainly does not actively present the ceiling of approaching Pro Bowl-level Oliver, the Duke product has a similar knack for getting into the backfield harassing QBs and ball carriers, and it’s a definite plus to have him rotating in for Oliver to keep fresh. Further, Carter is a born leader; his three-year captaincy period even earned him the nickname Mr. Duke. Mmmm, that’s good process.

Verdict: It’s a bit top heavy, but if Carter has a rookie breakout and the free agent pickups are even near average, the interior D-line could be a strength.

Edge Rushers/Defensive Ends

Roster Locks/Likely: Gregory Rousseau, Von Miller, AJ Epenesa, Dawuane Smoot

Bubble: Casey Toohill, Javon Solomon, Kingsley Jonathan

Camp Fodder/PS: Kameron Cline, Kendall Williamson, Rondell Bothroyd, Dacie Ogwoegbu

Now here we have the boom or bust potential position group for the Buffalo Bills in 2024. So much potential and so many question marks. The Bills just picked up the fifth-year option on Gregory Rousseau who has become an elite run protector, but can he ever reach the QB pressure/sack level they hoped from him? Von Miller is the NFL’s active sack leader, and graciously took a pay cut, but at age 35 can he come back from an absolute zero of a season? AJ Epenesa was a pleasant surprise re-up free agent and wreaked havoc in some games last year, but can he step up as a DE2 if Miller is a non-factor? And who is Casey Toohill?

Fifth round pick Javon Solomon is an intriguing prospect. Since the NCAA has tracked career sacks (admittedly just two decades), Solomon is tied for 10th most ever with (of all people) Von Miller at 33. As a sleek speed rush specialist, he’s the antithesis of who the multi-dimensional big dude the Bills usually seek at the position. However, if he can make the jump from smaller Troy to the NFL, he could be a fun third down change-of-pace, but can he help this year.

The Bills also picked up steady veteran Dawuane “The Question Is” Smoot who could be a nice rotational piece. Oh, and Toohill is a journeyman who DID have five sacks in limited play last year.

Verdict: Bills were among the league’s leaders in sacks last year, and the potential for an elite unit is here. It would take a lot to go right, however. And it’s just as possible all those things go wrong. Que sera sera.

Linebackers

Roster Locks/Likely: Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, Edefuan Ulifoshio

Bubble: Nicholas Morrow, Deion Jones, Baylon Spector

Camp Fodder/PS: None

If you think Beane isn’t as scarred as we are by poor unretired-by-necessity AJ Klein getting dragged around the field by Travis Kelce in the playoff game that ended the Bills season, check out how crowded the linebacker room is this year. Fifth rounder Eddie (he said we can call him that) Ulifoshio brings young leadership (another multi-year team captain), an attacking nature, and requisite coverage skills. That said, he’ll probably be deep on the depth chart and, barring another flurry of injuries, will make the roster for special teams ability.

Deion Jones is a freshly minted vet signing. Like Nicholas Morrow, he comes with his set of detractors and further was utterly embarrassed the last time we played him, but competing for a depth piece we could do (and have done) worse.

Verdict: Other than Milano’s health, this is one position group that should be set. Oh, man, I just jinxed them, didn’t I?

Safeties

Roster Locks/Likely: Taylor Rapp, Mike Edwards, Cole Bishop, Cam Lewis

Bubble: Damar Hamlin

Camp Fodder/PS: None

Up In The Air: Micah Hyde

Trying to figure this group out is well-nigh impossible (seriously, try to nigh). Any of FA re-up Taylor Rapp, FA signee Mike Edwards, or second round draft pick Cole Bishop could be one of the two starters. Perhaps we bring in a veteran when Tre Day’s cap space clears on June 1. Heck, even Micah Hyde—the less anti-vaxxy half of the Bills longtime All Pro duo—hasn’t retired nor has he ruled out a return.

Bishop may have been a bit of a reach at 60, but if he plays up to his potential in the next few years, who cares. He’s a relatively speedy (4.45 40) who lives in the backfield. His tackles were as close to the line of scrimmage as any drafted safety and he had 21.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, 3 INTs, and 12 passes defensed at Utah (all of that is very good, by the way). aniel Jeremiah called him a ball magnet and he’s a monster on the blitz. So, yeah, also maybe not a reach.

Verdict: Go with God!

Cornerbacks

Roster Locks/Likely: Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam (no, really)

Bubble: Daequan Hardy, Ja’Marcus Ingram

Camp Fodder/PS: Keni H-Lovely, Te’Cory Couch

The starters are set, Kaiir Elam has not proven any consistency yet, but he’s shown enough to warrant a further look. This is one case where both the bubble players are likely to make the roster. UB grad Ja’Marcus Ingram is a hard-hitting back who has bided his time, filling in well enough when needed. Unless the Bills bring in another vet FA, he’s got a great chance of making the roster.

Daequan Hardy will be a lock due to his ability to return. Unless he proves in the pre-season that he cannot be trusted, the speedy back who had two returns for TD last year will make the team and provide solid back-up in the nickel.

Verdict: A bit thin, but also could wind up a team strength with five to six players already on roster.

Kickers/Snappers

Roster Locks/Likely: Tyler Bass, Reid Ferguson

Bubble: Matt Haack, Sam Martin, Jake Browning

Tyler Bass certainly struggled last year, but based on the rest of his career, he deserves a mulligan. And Reid Ferguson is fine. The punting battle is likely a three player battle between the Bills most recent two starters and talented UDFA Jake Browning.

Verdict: Well, they DO have a lot of kickers

Final Post-Draft (Plus a Week) Thoughts

So, where do we stand in early May 2024? Well, Dolphins fans who are gloating the Bills demise may want to slow their roll. Even in transition, this is a strong roster with an abundance of upside that has become younger and perhaps hungrier. And they still have one of the top two QBs in the league in Josh Allen.

One thing to remember: there was a lot of similar chatter around a certain powerhouse team two years ago. They had just traded away their All Pro WR and faced plenty of turnover on their skilled roster. That team was of course the Kansas City Chiefs, who have been Super Bowl champs both years since.

I’m not saying the Bills are the Chiefs, but they are closer than many will give them credit. Not to make excuses, but the Bills were eliminated by the Chiefs in a game where the latter was almost completely healthy and playing on two extra days rest. Meanwhile the Bills had so many injuries they had an unretired 7th string linebacker guarding KC’s best weapon in Travis Kelce. And the Bills still almost won.

The draft addressed a lot of needs with players with good upside and if they can get a similar performance from the new recruits that KC did two years ago, there’s no reason they can’t contend yet again for the elusive Super Bowl crown.