As The Roster Turns: The Buffalo Bills After Two Weeks Of Free Agency
It’s become a trope for Buffalo Bills fans that Brandon Beane likes to go into the draft without any glaring holes. While the definition of a “hole” can be subective, we can make an argument that there is at least a starting caliber player at every position. Starting caliber is nice, but the team for the last few years of playoff runs have branded themselves progressively from “playoff caliber” to “championship caliber.”
There’s still many, many weeks to sign free agents, and some of the best players from last year—notably, newly departed sack leader from last year Leonard Floyd—didn’t sign until deep into the summer. However, it could be illuminating to take stock of where this team stands going into the draft. This is especially true as some of the national press sells the narrative that the Bills are on the downswing.
Quarterback
Rosterable Players: Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky
Futures/Practice Squad: Shane Buechele
We can immediately put a huge dent in the idea the Bills might not be playoff contenders as we start, as one does, at the quarterback position. As long as the Bills have Josh Allen, they are a contender. Period. One could even argue the roster is already better at this position as Allen was almost certainly playing through a UCL injury and Mitch Trubisky is an upgrade over Kyle Allen.
It’s easy to ridicule Mitch Trubisky. Fun, too. But the fact stands that Trubisky has a winning record in the NFL with some mediocre-at-best teams. Ideally, we never find out how many games he can win with the team, but it’s nice to know that if Allen has to miss a short stretch, the Bills have a QB with experience and a positive percentage in the league.
Status: Complete
Running Back
Rosterable Players: James Cook, Ty Johnson
Futures/PS: Darrynton Evans
James Cook had a breakout year last year with the fourth most rushing yards in the NFL, so we’re set at starter here, although there is room for improvement in some areas. While he’s certainly an asset in the passing game and likely to be in the top five targets, he had some key drops during the season. He also tended to fade a bit near the end of the season. That said, he was a deserving Pro Bowler and had the Bills’ best RB season since the Shady days.
Ty Johnson impressed many fans and Bills content creators with his effectiveness and his knack for staying on his feet late in the season. Chances are, however, that he’s most likely the third back and Cook’s counterpoint is either in the late FA market or in the draft. I cannot believe I am writing this, but at this point Zeke Elliott could be a sneaky good signing as a goal-line back. Darrynton Evans, once a promising third-round draftee, is good PS insurance, but at this point he’s not shown he can be much more.
Status: Day 3 Draft/Savvy FA Signing Target
Wide Receiver
Rosterable Players: Stefon Diggs, Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Justin Shorter(?)
Futures/PS: KJ Hamler, Andy Isabella, Tyrell Shavers, Bryant Thompson
First off, let’s not even entertain any notion (national media be damned) that Stefon Diggs will suit up for any team but the Buffalo Bills in 2024. They’re not taking the cap hit, first. Beyond that, he’s never once said he wants out, and has on multiple occasions stated his desire to stay in Buffalo.
Ok, that out of the way, this has been the fan focus of much of the off-season: with local whipping boy Gabriel Davis a Jag and the Harty/Sherfield Experiment a dud, the fan consensus choice for first round pick going into free agency was WR. The additions of Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins makes the need less urgent, but do not preclude the position being a priority when the Bills hit the podium.
Samuel could be an absolute find. He’s never played with a great quarterback and had his best season under current Bills OC Joe Brady. He also factors into the run game: in 2020, he ran the ball an astounding 41 times under Brady. Hollins is an expert special teams gunner who could flash some moments in the offensive game. Let’s not forget Khalil Shakir who had a breakout year last year with the best catch rate in the entire NFL.
Status: Surprisingly Strong, But Not Done. Day 1 or 2 Pick Still Likely
Tight End
Rosterable Players: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Quinton Morris
Futures/ST: Tre’ McKitty
They’re running it back and it’s a good thing. Not much to say here. Dalton Kincaid looks poised to make the jump to elite in his sophomore year. Dawson Knox underperformed last season in an injury-plagued year, but is still a force. Four years in a row, Knox has scored the first TD of the playoffs. Quinton Morris is an enviable backup.
Status: No Notes, Near Elite
Offensive Line
Rosterable Players: Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown, Will Clapp, Ryan Van Demark, Alec Anderson, Tommy Doyle
Futures/ST: Richard Gouraige, Kevin Jarvis
Oh, the handwringing of fans over this position group. After shocking just about everyone with one of the top five o-lines in the league, the Bills stunned fans in the other direction by trading supersub Ryan Bates and releasing Pro Bowl center Mitch Morse. While some have rightfully questioned blowing up a unit that worked, it may not be the step back most think.
David Edwards has been a more than servceable starting guard in the league and when the Bills signed Connor McGovern there was some talk about moving him to center. Wily veteran Will Clapp, signed on Friday, may even be an upgrade over Bates. Or, ideally, we may never know if we get as lucky as 2023 when no one on the line got hurt.
One reason to think about the position, even if you think there’s enough now: Spencer Brown started to fulfill his promise last year after an atrocious first two years. Non-first round draftees get a four-year contract, so the math’s not that hard to figure out.
Status: Not As Dire As Advertised, But Wouldn’t Kick a Day Three Pick Out Of Bed.
Defensive Tackle
Rosterable Players: DaQuan Jones, Ed Oliver, Austin Johnson
Futures/PS: Eli Ankou
Ummmmm. Oof. The two veterans under contract are borderline All Pro. Ed Oliver lived up to his controversial contract with a breakout year and DaQuan Jones has been a beast of the interrior. They’re not playing 100% of the snaps and they are not immortal. Jones’ ex-college and pro teammate visited. While I was writing this, it was announced that he signed, so, yay! They still need at least one more rotational player, but Johnson helps.
Status: Is It Time To Crack Open People’s Heads And Feast On The Goo Inside? Well, Maybe Not Yet, But Multiple Draft Picks At The Position Might Be In Order. Is This Status Too Long, Sure? We Don’t Lean Into Bits We Gang Tackle Them!
Defensive End/Edge Rusher
Rosterable Players: Gregory Rousseau, Von Miller, AJ Epenesa, Casey Toohill
Futures/PS: Kameron Cline
If Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa continue to improve and Von Miller rebounds from his disastrous zero of a 2023 season, they are in good place. Casey Toohill, coming off his best season with Washington, is a good depth piece… a Shaq Lawson if you will.
Status: Cupboard Not As Bare As Defensive Tackle, But Should Still Be Consideration In First Round
Linebacker
Rosterable Players: Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, Dorian Williams, Nicholas Morrow, Baylon Spector
Futures/PS: Nope
Terrell Bernard surprised most fans last year when he improved upon deprarted Pro Bowler Tremaine Edmunds. Bernard proved he is a dynamic playmaker and steady in coverage, the perfect companion for All Pro Matt Milano. If both can stay healthy this year, the Bills have one of the strongest LB duos in the game.
Dorian Williams showed off tackling skills and ferocity last year, although there is some question about his instincts. FA signee Nick Morrow comes of a statistically gaudy but meh-in-practice season. However, as a third or fourth LB he should be good in spot duty. Baylon Spector has performed admirably when called upon.
Status: Needs PS Depth, But Pretty Set
Safety
Rosterable Players: Mike Edwards, Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Cam Lewis
Futures/PS: Kendall Williamson
It had to happen sometime, but that doesn’t make it not hurt. The Jordan Poyer/Micah Hyde Era has come to an end. Hyde will likely retire and Poyer was a semi-surprise cut and sprinted to the right-wing paradise of Florida to join the hated Miami Dolphins. At the time of Poyer’s release, it left Damar Hamlin as the only remaining safety under contract, although Cam Lewis re-signed during the day. Still, a Hamlin/Lewis pairing is not how you want to go into the draft, let alone the season.
Thankfully, they also re-upped Taylor Rapp pretty quickly. Rapp had an underwhelming first season with the Bills, but had his moments in the playoff drive and postseason. And he started 33 games the prior two season for the Rams. Then the Bills went quiet on the position until a couple days ago when they signed KC Chiefs supersub Mike Edwards. Are they at Poyer/Hyde level? No, but neither were Poyer or Hyde when they were first signed. In fact, the path of the two players to this point of their career is disarmingly similar to the stalwart pair we’ve loved for six years.
Ultimately, even if you don’t like Sean McDermott, you have to give him credit for getting the most out of his defensive backs. Will Rapp and Edwards turn into stars? Will the Bills find money in the banana stand to sign another safety (Julian Blackmon, who visited, still out there). Do they draft one of the top prospects like Kam Kinchens or Tyler Nubin? Possibly, but at least they have two players who feel like they could man the fort.
Status: Not Perfect, But Almost Hopeful.
Cornerback
Rosterable Players: Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford, Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam
Futures/PS: Kyron Brown, Ja’Marcus Ingram
Sadly, the story of Tre’Davious White, which started with a few ywars of eliteness, ended with three partial, injury-plagued seasons. While we hate to see him go, it’s nice to have 10 million dollars coming in June, allowing Beane to spend to the cap in free agency. It’s relevant overall, but since none of it was spent on a cornerback to date, I’ve written myself into a corner here.
Aaanyway, thankfully, in-season trade arrival Rasul Douglas has quietly evolved from one-time journeyman into one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL with about as many INTs as anybody over the past three seasons. Christian Benford may be our best kept secrets. Meanwhile, Taron Johnson just deservedly became the best paid slot corner in the league. Former first-rounder Kaiir Elam has been inconsistent to paint it in the best light. That said, he still has shown flashes, and promisingly many of those flashes have been in the playoffs where he has a pair of INTs.
Little has been said about any need at cornerback, and any time a national mock drafter gives the Bills a cornerback in the first round, fans revolt. However, it’s a sneaky need. Douglas is not under contract next season and they will likely carry more than four corners, especially since we’ve seen how fast cornerback depth can be depleted. So, if a cornerback’s name is announced at position 28, don’t despair.
Status: Yeah, sneaky need.
Kickers
Rosterable Players: Sam Martin, Matt Haack, Tyler Bass
Futures/PS: None
Yes, we have two punters right now. Only logic could be that Haack was a better holder and after Bass’down year coupled with the fact that Bills don’t punt often, it could be a hedge against that.
Status: Shrug?
So, that’s the roster a little over a month before the draft. Taking into account that the Bills signed two players while I was writing this, there will assuredly be more signings before Caleb Williams is inevitably announced to the Chicago Bears.
Is it “Super Bowl Caliber” [TM}? Well, with Josh Allen, even if they have a halfway decent roster, they have a chance. It’s also, and we can’t stress this enough, nowhere near finished. But it’s got players and at least a little depth at every position, which is remarkable considering they started March 50 million over the cap. Beane can comfortably go into the draft not having to force a first round pick into a specific position. That’s the Beane Way. And it’s amazing that we got to that point this year.
