Giants@Bills: Week 6 Preview

This may be the hardest one of these previews to write. It’s not just that I kinda like the Giants… as a Bills fan, it’s hard not to want to root for a team with a familiar head coach and many former Bills players. Mostly, it’s superstition. This one feels like such a mismatch; but any given Sunday reigns in the NFL and anything written here is grist for the Freezing Cold Takes mill.

The Giants stumble into the former Ralph about as weakened as any team in history. Their starting QB, superstar RB, free agent prize tight end, four out of their five starting linemen, and their best pass rusher are all out or genuinely questionable. And that’s from a team who when relatively healthy lost 40-0 to the Cowboys in the opening week.

At one point, the Giants were supposed to be a contender, supposed to be a somebody team, instead of being a bunch of bums, which is what they are, let’s face it. The Bills are also underachievers, but in the weirdest, 2023 type of way. They are 3-2, but are also second only to the hot starting 49ers in point differential with a +70. The Bills lost their opening game to a hobbled Jets before going on one of the most dominant 3-game stretches in NFL history. Then London called and the Bills went back underground, losing a sluggish game by five while losing their first team All Pro linebacker and PFF darling defensive tackle for most, if not all, of the year.

Still, any and all logic would see almost no way for the Giants to be competitive. They even match up worse than their rosters would initially imply. The trench mismatch going in has to be one of the most distinctly imbalanced in NFL history. The Bills have tallied a league leading 21 sacks in five games, while the Giants have allowed 30 (also tops in the NFL). The Giants’ pass rush has also been anemic, tallying a QB takedown per game, while the Bills’ Josh Allen has only been sacked nine times. Add in that future Hall of Fame pass rusher Von Miller is just returning to form and that Sunday’s Giants starting QB Tyrod Taylor is the 15th most frequently sacked QB in history among all qualifiers, and this should be an utter beatdown. Should be…

Could it possibly be a Tyrod Taylor “revenge” game as some are suggesting? Would Taylor even want revenge five years after being traded by the team that probably extended his career by a decade and enriched him in the tens of millions. Well, let’s look at the units.

Quarterbacks

Now, as Bills fans, we find it hard to hate on Tyrod Taylor. The crafty signal caller could be exciting to watch when he got in a groove, and was the starter in 2017 when the Bills ended their 17-year playoff drought. He seems like a nice guy who has been given a lot of bad breaks. But, also, let’s be real: he got one huge break when the Bills saw something in the journeyman back-up to name him the starter in 2015.

Bills fans also recall how long he could go between those exciting plays. And for all his elusiveness, he got sacked a lot. It does not help that this week he is behind the Giants’ hobbled to the point of putrid o-line (we’ll get to that). One thing we should probably not expect is the Bills to add to their league lead in takeaways. Taylor has the third lowest INT percentage in NFL history, while also taking care of the ball well.

The offense was frustrating last week, but make no mistake, Josh Allen is still on track to finally snatch his first MVP trophy. He’s got a 106 QB rating, third best behind Tua and Brock Purdy{?!}, trails only Purdy{?!} in ESPN’s more rigorous QBR, while leading the NFL in total TDs with 14. Even his five interceptions are a bit misleading in that three of them were essentially long punts (thrown near the end zone on broken-down 3rd and long). Last week’s would have likely been a gamechanger had Diggs been able to wrest it away from criminally underrated CB Darious Williams.

Advantage: Very Much Buffalo

Running Backs

This one is trickier. The elephant in the room is obviously Saquon Barkley. We really hate to say this, but Barkley has never truly lived up to the immense hype, save for his 2018 rookie season, and to a lesser extent in 2021. For the most part, it’s due to injury, and again this week, not a shocker, he is questionable. His yards per carry is an underwhelming 4.4 which is mostly kept at that meh level by his torrid above-5 pace of his first two years in the league. That said, any given week, on any given handoff, he could break off a run that will haunt your football nightmares for weeks.

Meanwhile, the Bills started off on fire in the RB game. Three weeks in, James Cook led the AFC in rushing yards. He stalled a bit vs. the Dolphins, and put up a Reggie-Bush-in-a-Bills-uniform stat line last week with 5 carries for -4 yards. Is the 24-year-old coming down to earth or just in a rough patch? Solid back-up crew, Damien Harris and Latavius Murray were relatively quiet as well.

Really there’s too many moving parts and question marks to give this anything but a…

Advantage: Push

Pass Catchers

On the WR side, this is a rare occurrence where the Bills room leads significantly. Stefon Diggs has been the most consistent wideout in the NFL, surpassing the 100-yard mark in all but one game. Meanwhile, Gabe Davis haters have had to be quieter as he is on pace for his first 1000-yard season and has scored a TD in each of the last four games. The rest of the room has been… fine.

On the East Rutherford, New Jersey, side, it’s less peachy. Sure-handed ex-Bill Isaiah Hodgins was looking like a rising superstar, but has stalled out the last few weeks. Longtime Giant Darius Slayton is the leading receiver, with 167 yards. That’s a projected 568 yards on the season. Promising rookie Jaylin Hyatt has had moments. Oh, and Cole Beasley might be back and want revenge on the Bills for… some of us fans believing in science… I guess{?!}.

The tight end situation gives us a chance to use our word of the day.. questionable. Darren Waller has been good, if not the dominant TE he was two years ago, but he may not even suit up this week. Will this be the week that we get to see the 12-formation Bills in action, with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid giving the Giants’ linebackers and safeties fits. Or will both be inactive and Quinton Morris start?

Advantage: Extremely Buffalo

Offensive Line

If this were game one, I’d likely call it an even match of sad sack o-lines. However, the Bills have been a pleasant shock as right tackle Spencer Brown’s wish to be a real lineman has apparently been granted. Meanhile, two-time “Pro Bowl” left tackle Dion Dawkins may get a chance to remove those Marisa Tomei-esque quotation marks this year. Dawkins has been playing the ball of his life, excelling in the run game, while allowing zero sacks and just committing his first penalty this week. The unit is the second best in the NFL per Computer Cowboy‘s amalgamation of rankings.

The Giants are dead last in the same rankings. And their best starter left tackle Andrew Thomas is hurt. Their recent top 10 pick Evan Neal may or may not play, and it’s dubious whether if he plays it will be a good thing as he’s quickly joining Ereck Flowers in the Giants recent bust linemen file having allowed an astonishing five sacks. Guard Mark Glowinski is the only starter expected to play. As bad as they have been, you almost wonder how much worse the back-ups could even be.

Advantage: Buffalo by a Billion

Defensive Line

This is getting repetitive, but here’s another unit where the disparity is just mind-bogglingly large. Even in last week’s defensive mess, the defensive line was a problem for Jaksonville all day with five sacks and eight QB hits. AJ Epenesa went full beast mode, batting down three passes, scoring two sacks, a tackle for loss and recovering a fumble. Ed Oliver also continued his post-contract hottest start ever, with three TFL’s (he’s tied with Danielle Hunter and Nik Bonito for the league lead) and his fourth sack.

The Bills lead all of football with 21 sacks and that’s with the active leader in the category, Von Miller, missing the first four games and playing a small snap count last week. The Giants have had just five and have not generated much of any pressure. And their only player off to a quick start, DE Azeez Ojulari is also ruled out. They don’t lack for talent, but Kevin Thibodeaux is having a brutal sophomore slump and Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence have been quiet.

The Giants have been better than the Bills at stopping the run, but a bit of the Bills’ “woes” in that department may be exaggerated by odd circumstance. And even then, the Giants are allowing an above average 4.6 yards per carry. Cook and Barkley, if the latter plays, could eat healthily.

The Bills did lose their top player on the line (perhaps the whole defense) in DaQuan Jones for most, if not all, of the season, but the Bills built their depth here for a reason.

Advantage: Buffalo Buffalo (will) Buffalo

Linebackers

This one lands a bit closer to the middle as the Giants two starters have not been anything special and the Bills’ pair suffered a catastrophic injury. Matt Milano was playing so well coming off his first All Pro selection that even a Jet fan pundit was speculating he should be a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year. But his season came crashing down a few minutes after Jones’. MLB Terrel Bernard has been a refreshing surprise, playing at a Pro Bowl level through five starts. Hopefully for the Bills, Dorian Williams makes it two third round linebacker picks in a row proving doubters wrong.

The Giants’ savvily picked up steady inside LB Bobby Okereke, and he’s done about as well as could be expected in their defenses train wreck of a start. His counterpart Micah McFadden has not been as “impressive.”

Advantage: Push

Defensive Backs

OK, I’m just getting a bit exhausted here. The Bills have a lot of injuries here, and Jordan Poyer has been a shell of himself so far (a shell of Poyer still very good), but Micah Hyde, Taron Johnson, and Christian Benford (when healthy and he is this week) have been playing lights out. If Dane Jackson does not play, then it’s Kaiir Elam, who hopefully does not make a Giant a star in the same manner he brought Calvin Ridley out of his rut last week.

There’s not much to say about the Giants secondary except they are mostly young (except for veteran nickel back Adoree Jackson) and that they are somehow in the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed in spite of having the worst pressure rate in football. Some of that is probably the opposing teams running out the clock as early as the second quarter, but still… sigh, I’m tired of ragging on the Giants.

Advantage: Probably Buffalo. Let’s Just Go with Push

Overall

So, the Bills are 10-3 after a loss, which means also that they are coming off a loss. Combine that with it being a Sunday night game and playing another bottom feeder next week and it’s hard to call this a trap game. The Giants should be ridiculously overmatched, but then so should the Cardinals have been vs. the Cowboys a few weeks ago. All logic points to a Bills win, and it’s not overseas, and it’s in Buffalo… but Any Given Sunday is not just a slightly above average movie starring a young-ish Al Pacino.

Prediction: I’m Not Touching This One. Go Bills!