Dolphins@Bills: Week 4 Preview

Well, here we are! It’s the week Bills fans have been waiting for slash dreading. It’s also the biggest game of the NFL season so far. DVOA, Aaron Schatz’ rankings which take into account every analytic, and arguably the best NFL heirarchy out there have the Dolphins at #2 and believe it or not, our Buffalo Bills at #1.

A quick early sidebar here: it truly amazes me that we’ve come to this. The Buffalo Bills have become accepted as a national television draw, a team that the league goes out of its way to schedule on Thanksgiving would delight, and very much mystify younger me. And I’m old enough to remember the Super Bowl years. Back to this game…

As everyone—including probably a few hermits and most of the Amish—knows, the Miami Dolphins put up 70 on the Broncos last week, just two points shy of the all-time record. The Bills, much more quietly, had a dominant, statement game themselves, holding the 2-0 Commanders to a near shutout (Rivera salvaged some face with a last-minute 51-yard field goal), with an absolutely smothering 9 sacks, 4 interceptions, and a forced fumble.

Now, to be fair, both wins were against pretty lousy teams. The Broncos have lost all three games (funnily enough, to three teams who would play the Bills the following week) while the Commanders’ surprise 2-0 start was scratched out against the bottom of the NFL barrel—which logically includes those Broncos. While both teams have teased at looked elite so far (excluding the Bills hiccup vs. the Jets), we don’t truly know.

In any case, the first three weeks have set up quite the remarkable and epic standoff between the two teams. The Miami Dolphins offense has scored 132 points so far, while the Buffalo Bills defense has allowed just 29 in the same three games. Meanwhile, the other units have arguably underachieved as a whole. The Dolphins defense always looks better on paper than it actually performs (DVOA has them at 21), while Josh Allen has looked terrible, like Josh Allen, and just above meh in his first trio of games. That said, their offensive DVOA is still a more-than respectable four.

Let’s look at each unit individually…

Quarterbacks

This one is going to hurt my heart, and I’m sure I’m not alone in Bills Mafia. Do we judge Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa based on so far this season or evaluate their career as a whole? Tua’s QB rating is an ungodly 121 to Allen’s less gaudy 90. QB rating is a deservedly maligned stat. QBR, ESPN’s attempt to improve it, is a bit kinder, with Tua at 82.4 and Josh at a well-above-average 68.7.

However, the eye test has favored Tua by a lot as he has just looked flawless at times as he utilizes his strengths of short-range accuracy to storm down the field most times he has the ball. On the other hand, Josh has looked truly himself in just one third of the games. In week 3, he played smart, but inconsistent in the passing game and in week 1, he was Andy Dick levels of hot messery. The offensive line’s way-better-than-expected performances by both teams has certainly been a big part of the QB play this year, but we’ll get to that.

I’m tempted to give it to Tua for his torrid start to 2023, and not just to counteract my admitted bias. However, when you factor in Allen’s absolute obliteration of the Dolphins over his first 10 games against them, and his being in the MVP conversation over the last three years, it’s arguable that going with Tua here is recency bias gone wild. It’s the hot hand of the possibly top tier road QB vs. the established elite if flaky home QB, so gotta be my weasel self and go with…

Advantage: Push

Running Backs

This one’s also recency bias vs. the whole picture, but on a smaller scale. James Cook is the number one rusher in the AFC with 267 yards on an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. In his second year, Cook is starting to look like a surprise addition to the RB top tier. For the Fins, De’Von Achane famously topped the 200-yard mark (a figure that Bills fans are all too famliar with from Miami backs). But so did Raheem Mostert and fourth-stringer rookie Chris Brooks combine for another 150+ yards. It was brutal.

This is the one where I’m gonna go with the recency bias—as well as the Bills’ history vs. the Dolphins—and give the edge to…

Advantage: Miami

Pass Catchers

Now here’s one that’s not as neck-and-neck. Tyreek Hill is on pace to obliterate Megatron’s receiving record and is about as in sync with his QB as can be. It doesn’t help the Bills in stopping the Dolphins explosive attack that Jaylen Waddle, inarguably the best WR2 (sorry Tee) is back from injury. Braxton Berrios has been fine, as has the exquisitely named River Cracraft (although the Bills won’t see Cracraft as he is out for the game).

The Bills WR room is solid, if top heavy. Stefon Diggs’ start has only been muted by the absolute ridiculous 2023 beginnings of WRs in general, especially Hill and Justin Jefferson. Bills fans really need to put more respect on Gabe Davis’ name. Expectations were thrown off by THAT game, but 900+ yards and 10+ TDs (as is his pace) is more, way more, than respectable for your WR2. Unfortunately, Deonte Harty’s jet sweeps have been sniffed out so far and Trent Sherfield has yet to warrant Hill’s genuinely shocked and hurt tweet at the former’s exit.

The tight ends should make it closer than equal, but Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid have not thrived (yet) during the Bills newfound embrace of the 12 formation. The Dolphins have had barely any production from the position with 89 yards from Duncan Smythe and… well, that’s it. Truthfully, though, they haven’t really missed the position.

Advantage: Miami

Offensive Line

At the beginning of the season, if I told you one team had a slight edge in this category, you’d probably think it’s a case of Homer Simpson’s two best words in the English language. Pre-season, PFF rated the Dolphins 20 and the Bills 22. However, the Bills are coming off a game where their line held Washington’s generational front four to zero sacks and just one hit. The Dolphins have defended Tua to the tune of just one sack allowed. A Twitter user called Computer Cowboy has been posting an aggregation of o-line rankings all season which have the Dolphins and Bills at 1 and 3, respectively.

For the Bills, Spencer Brown has held his own at right tackle since a rough game 1, while his counterpart on Josh’s blindside, Dion Dawkins is having his best start, only allowing a single hit while bulldozing d-linemen on run plays. On Miami’s side, LT Terron Armstead’s main issue has been health, and he has played all three games. Former first round RT Austin Jackson is finally coming into his home on the right side. Both team’s interiors have been elite or near elite.

Bills line deserves its flowers so far, especially with all the guff they’ve taken. That said, one sack on the season and a 350-yard running game speaks for itself.

Advantage: Miami

Defensive Tackles

This is a bit of a mismatch apple/oranges given how different Vic Fangio’s 3-4 and Sean McDermott’s rotational 4-3 are. Therefore, we’re going to break this up a bit differently this week. The Bills have the clear advantage here with Ed Oliver earning his new contract with constant disruption and DaQuan Jones has been quietly one of the best DTs since he joined the Bills. This year, Jones is even racking up stats. For Miami, their three center stuffers are led by feel copper Christian Wilkins of whom its weirdly hard to tell if he’s overachieving or underachieving. Former second rounder Raekwon Davis has been fine, but not the gamebreaker he was once expected to be. And Zach Sieler is also there (oh no, I just ensured he would hae a great game.

Advantage: Buffalo

Pass Rushers

So, while Buffalo harrasses QBs with its edge rushers (who are sometimes officially called linebackers), the Miami sends its outside linebackers (who fit in seamlessly with most edge rushers) to gather sacks. In any case, both teams pass rush room run deep, but both are missing their best players. Von Miller is in his fourth and (hopefully) final week on PUP easing back from his ACL tear, while recent first rounder Jaelan Phillips’ injury is new.

For the Bills, Gregory Rousseau has just one sack, but both PFF and simply watching him tell you the third year player has evolved into a difference maker. Late arrival Leonard Floyd has been cleaning up with 3.5 sacks while missing most of a game with a nasty injury. Meanwhile, AJ Epenesa also seems to be coming into his own with an elite PFF rating and both a pick-6 and a sack last weeks.

On the Dolphins side, Andrew Van Ginkel is off to his best start, just below 90 on PFF, and he always gives the Bills fits. Emmanuel Ogbah and Bradley Chubb have the names more than their output so far this year, but they do have three sacks between them. Also, I realize I am using PFF way too much for as flaky as their ratings can be, but the Dolphins game is just getting inside my head.

Advantage: Push

Inside Linebackers

Or whatever you want to call them. The Bills two-man front has been off to a monstrously good start. Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard have the two lowest QB ratings allowed of all linebackers, both have a pair of interceptions, and Bernard has two sacks and a fumble recovery to boot. A first team All-Pro last year, Matt Milano’s play was expected. However, Terrell Bernard has been the target of ridicule since his third round pick last year. The Terrell Bernard apology form has been making the rounds and I am one of those people to sign that meme.

In Miami’s middle, it’s mainstay Jerome Baker who has always been… fine. David Long, Jr., on the other hand, has been all Miami hoped he would be when he was Miami’s savviest signing of the Summer. It’s a fine pair of inside LBs, but the Bills pair have been on another plane this year.

Advantage: Buffalo

Defensive Backs

As with the pass rusher category, each team is missing a key figure. However, in this case it’s Miami’s free agent signee and failed Josh Allen insulter Jalen Ramsey who has been out all season, while Jordan Poyer’s injury is new. Both teams have healthy safeties off to a torrid start. Buffalo’s veteran Micah Hyde is back to form after his neck injury. On Miami, Javen Holland just gets better and better each year.

Xavien Howard and Tre’Davious White have both been All-Pros and gamechangers when on top of their game for their respective teams. Are they now? Not everyone is sure. And their stats are spookily similar so far, including when you break it down to next gen stats. Both have an INT, are right around a 60% completion rating and 70 QB Rating allowed.

Christian Benford has shown why he beat out 2022 first rounder Kaiir Elam and Taron Johnson has continued to prove he’s one of the best, if not the best, nickel back in the game. The Dolphins don’t use the nickel back as much. We haven’t talked about Kader Kohou, Brandon Jones, and Eli Apple. They are all solid backs. Two out of three of them anyway.

With Poyer out, it’s close, but Taylor Rapp has been a starter and with the five starters to four lead, we’ll cheat and call it…

Advantage: Buffalo

Overall

Miami’s the hottest team in football. but as we’ve said, DVOA favors the Bills with the Fins a close second. Miami is on a historic points scored start, but the Bills are quietly second in that category. The Bills are also second in fewest defensive point allowed, while the Dolphins are in the middle of the pack. Miami looks like a genuine Super Bowl contender, but let’s not forget, so are the Bills. And this game is in Buffalo, and teams that have scored 60+ points in the post-merger era are 1-6 in the subsequent match. I’m admittedly a homer, but there’s unbiased reasons to believe that of two hot teams, it will be the Bills to win.

Predicted Score: Bills 38, Dolphins 30.