Bills@Commanders: Week 3 Preview

In 2008, excitement permeated the air in Buffalo, as after two weeks, the irrelevant-for-almost-a-decade Bills started 2-0. Five weeks later, the Bills seemed poised to end their playoff drought as they stood at 5-2 with the immortal Trent Edwards at the helm. This was the first of multiple years that made Bills fans learn to hate that 5-2 record.

The Bills would lose all but two of their remaining games, left to wonder what went wrong. However, when one looked back at the early burst, it was plain to see they might never really have been. If you looked at the five teams they beat, none were impressive. That’s the kindest way I can think of to lead into the Washington Commanders.

DC’s football team is very much 2-0. No one can take that away from them. And they have fought for those wins… which is part of the problems. Their two wins were against the Cardinals and Broncos. In their opener, they had to struggle to come back to beat a team expected by many to join the Lions and Browns in the winless season club AT HOME. Their second game was a similar nailbiter vs. a team for whom it’s looking more and more like last year’s disappointment was more on the QB and talent in general than the coachng of Nathaniel Hackett.

Moreover, the Commanders are a messy team. In their two games they have been prone to penalties, turnovers, and just inconsistent play from all corners (except the defensive line). They start in that mode against a veteran Bills team and this game could be over before it begins. Moreover, Hurricane Ophelia looms to the south and west with some suggesting it will reach its peak around the second quarter of the game. A sloppy team and rain are not a great combo.

Having said all that, this team could be feeding off the confidence of their first two wins. If they hang around — as they have in their first two games this season — their ridiculously talented defensive line can absolutely take control. Furthermore, bad weather can also be a great equalizer and Bills have to be focused to make sure they don’t submit to their own sometimes messy/chaotic ways.

So let’s get to the positions….

Quarterbacks

It’s not exaclty a spoiler to come right out and say that this category favors the Bills. Sam Howell is an intriguing young quarterback and better than you probably think. The 2022 fifth rounder is an elusive sort, a fact a bit obscured by the offensive line being just terrible. He’s accurate, can manage a game when his pocket is clean and make things happen when chased out.

Unfortunately, like with Allen, many bad things also happen when spooked. However, unlike Allen, he does not make up for those mistakes (at least yet) by being one of the best QBs in football when on their game. And more often than not, Allen is on his game. He was last week as he earned his mind-boggling 11th AFC Offensive Player of the Week. That’s already the fifth most of any active player and he’s just 27.

Allen and Dorsey worked in tandem to rein in his mistakes last week, taking what the Raiders D gave him and efficiently moving down the field. He still made some insane plays few others could make, like his fade TD to Khalil Shakir and his jump pass TD trusting Gabe Davis. Can Allen keep the same composure against a better defense, a defense featuring one of the best d-lines in football? Hopefully so, as this sort of measured approach is likely the key to beating a sneaky Washington team.

Advantage: Buffalo

Running Backs

The Bills’ running game has been a question mark since the departure of LeSean McCoy. It’s not that they’ve been particularly bad; it’s more that they have not been an integral part of the offense. However, this year’s RB room may put that notion to rest. It’s early, but James Cook is fifth in the league in rushing yards. In his young career, he has put up an astounding 5.7 yards per carry (above 4.4 is considered good). And veterans Damien Harris and Latavius Murray both scored touchdowns in last week’s romp.

Brian Robinson, in the same time, has 3.9 yards per carry. However, he can be exhausting if given time and if the field is sloppy as expected, it could favor Robinson’s persistant style, even against a defense who just held the reigning running champ to -2 yards. Antonio Gibson has been scary in the past, but that has slipped to the back-up tells you a lot about where he is in 2023.

Advantage: Buffalo

Pass Catchers

Both teams have savvy, often dominant WR1s, but for all Terry McLaurin’s hype, Stefon Diggs is just better. Diggs’ worst year of his Bills tenure is still about 100 yards better than McLaurin’s best. One of the best route-runners in the game, Diggs has averaged over 100 yards per game vs. the Washington team. Part of it might have to do with Diggs growing up in the Maryland suburbs of DC.

However, McLaurin should never be taken lightly. When he has a good game, he can give teams match-up nightmares, even against a shutdown corner like the Bills have. It always shocks me to see McLaurin is only 6′ as he often bullies defenders like a tight end. Their supporting cast is solid, with Jahan Dotson a sneakily speedy up-and-comer and Curtis Samuel, like a certain other Samuel, being dangerous both as a runner and a receiver. Meanwhile, on the Bills, Gabe Davis reminded us that he’s still a better than average WR2 when he holds onto the ball. The rest of the group has been underwhelming so far.

For the second week in a row, it’s the tight end play that separates the Bills from their opponents in this category. Dalton Kincaid has not had a breakout game or huge catch yet, but still is on pace for the 14th best rookie tight end season. Dawson Knox started his usual collection of TDs (a stat of which he had zero in college) last week. Former Bill Logan Thomas has been a steady presence for Washington, but he’s out, leaving John Bates and his 403 career yards the likely starter. It’s worth stating that 10% of those yards came last week, but still…

Advantage: Buffalo

Offensive Line

As bad as we’ve thought the Bills offensive line has been the last few years, the Commanders line this year has been far worse. The closest thing to a recognizable name is ex-Chief Andrew Wylie and Howell has been running for his life, sacked 10 times already. They have also allowed 15 QB hits and 13 tackles for loss (like sprinkles that contain potassium benzoate, that’s bad). This deficiency has been mostly obscured by the absolutely absurd dominance of the next Commanders position group we will talk about.

Meanwhile, the Bills o-line, after looking the usual dreadful week 1, actually stood their ground against the Raiders. Pro Bowl LT Dion Dawkins has earned some of the best PFF games of his career so far. Manning the other tackle position, beleaguered fan un-favorite Spencer Brown gave us a taste of why the Bills have stuck with him as he neutralized Maxx Crosby. However, there will be four Crosby-esque players raining down on the Bills line this week. So let’s talk about the rampaging elephant on the Commanders.

Advantage: Buffalo

Defensive Line

Now, the Bills, even without Von Miller, have been impressive in their pass rush game this season. And while you might not believe it after the Jets’ running feats week 1, their front four has been quite stout against the run. Ed Oliver has been quietly coming into his own with both a top 25 run block percentage among ALL defensive players and a 13th best pass rush win among all defensive linemen. Gregory Rousseau has also been a beast if major stats have not shown it. That’s not to mention Leonard Floyd’s addition being vital when he’s been healthy.

The Washington Commanders line is just better. It’s arguably better than every other team’s, possibly even one of the all-time bests in the biz. This front four has been touted for years, but this year they have finally started to live up to the massive hype. Much of this is due to one-time second overall pick Chase Young finally becoming the disruption machine he’s always been expected to be. He’s somehow still just 24 years old to boot. Their interior players, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne may be the two best at their position right now, and Montez Sweat has been a consistent sack compiler.

In the first game against Arizona should have been an easy victory, but it wasn’t. However, once the team took the lead, the front four took over the game in about as complete a way as I’ve ever seen. And in week 2, the unit scored seven sacks and a mind-blowing 14 QB Hits. The Bills o-line holds this team to three sacks and a smattering of QB Hits and it should be considered a signature game for them.

Advantage: (Obviously) Washington

Linebackers

There’s a huge drop-off from Washington’s line to the rest of its defense. Jamin Davis has shown flashes of being the dynamic disruptor they expected him to be when they drafted him in the mid first round. Cody Barton has been fine, if below average manning the middle.

Meahwhile, Terrell Bernard has also been fine for the Bills at MLB, which has been a fun surprise. As much as I loved Tremaine Edmunds, he likely would not have made the diving INT Bernard did last week. But Matt Milano has been thriving as if last year’s unexpected first team All-Pro selection was his baseline, with two gaudy interceptions and a furious defense of the middle.

Advantage: Buffalo

Defensive Backs

The secondary has arguably been the weakest spot on both defenses so far in 2023. It’s surprising for the Bills, but not for the Commanders. CB Kendall Fuller had his best season last year, but that still meant giving up 5 TDs and a meh 87.1 QB rating against. First round rookie counterpart Emmanuel Forbes has looked solid, however, with an INT. There’s a similar imbalance with the safeties, with Kamren Curl allowing over 80 percent of passes against him so far, while young counterpart Darrick Forrest has been a late-round find so far.

On the Bills side, Tre White has received wide criticism for not playing up to his pre-ACL tear All-Pro level. Personally, I think it’s hogwash as White has been targeted just three times, giving up a catch each to Devante Adams and Garrett Wilson. And Wilson’s touchdown was an amazing play by the receiver on near-perfect coverage. White’s fine.

Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde have not looked particularly bad, but have been beaten more than usual the first two weeks. That said, the whole D unit has given up only two passing TDs while often playing on short fields in week 1. Oh, we haven’t talked about Christian Benford who has the sixth best rating against among all defensive backs so far. Benford beat out Elam. Elam did not lose to Benford.

Finally, we’ve got the nickel backs. Taron Johnson is one of the best. Benjamin St. Juste is highly exploitable.

Advantage: Buffalo

Overall

So, it’s advantage Buffalo in all categories but one, and that lone “advantage” is a position group who could upend the whole game if given the chance. Despite records, the Bills are the superior team, and it’s not close. However, the Bills need to get off to a clean, quick start and hurry Howell a lot. If this team sticks around, they are dangerous. And if they get a late lead, their front four can close it down like few others can.

On Tom Murphy’s excellent Bills or Bust podcast, I predcted a 31-13 win, but that was before I knew about Hurricane Ophelia bearing down on the mid-Atlantic coast. So, I’ll mute that a bit to…

Prediction: Bills 24, Commanders 13