Bills @ Jets: Week 1 Preview
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Football is here, the weather is starting to get less oppressive, and anything is possible. The overarching national narrative has been that our Bills are last year’s news and that the Jets and the Dolphins are poised to take over the AFC East. The Dolphins did their part to build on that yesterday, with Tua & Tyreek absolutely overwhelming the Chargers defense—but it was still a close game. Luckily, if you’re a Bills fan, the Buffalo 53 get a chance to start to quash said narrative as they open the year against the New York Jets.
It won’t be easy, however, as almost every intangible is stacked against the Bills. The game is in the Meadowlands, where the crowd will be at a fever pitch. Symbolically, it’s (purposely) on the anniversary of NYC’s worst day. Most importantly, the Jets are not heralded in a vacuum. Their 2022 draft is shaping up to, while maybe not rival Pittsburgh’s 1974 bounty, become an all-time classic. Furthermore, the NJ team’s biggest weakness has been the inability to land on even a serviceable QB, and now they have 2020/2021 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers.
On the other hand, the Jets are a team who quietly backed out of the 2022 season, finishing on a 6-game losing streak. And while A-A-Ron may be one of the ten best signal callers in history, he is turning 40 this season. To boot, his 2022 season was borderline dreadful. You simply have to look at Peyton Manning to see just how quickly a premier QB can lose it. That said, if you do look at Manning, you’ll see (or remember) that faltering version of Manning did win a Super Bowl surrounded by a deep Denver team.
Pivotally, while the national media may have lost its excitement for the Bills, their reasoning often has very little to do with what the Bills actually did in the off-season. The team did lose middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who—while he could be polarizing—was the field marshall of a consistently top 10 defense, and was one of the top coverage LBs in the game. The Bills also let RB Devin Singletary walk, but while he had his moments, it’s debatable how much of a loss that is.
However, the Bills are coming off a season riddled by injuries and saddled with sorrow. Given the way the season sputtered in the playoffs, it’s easy to forget this team finished tied for the most wins in Bills history, despite of all the trauma. Not one of their three losses was by more than a field goal, and they won the final seven games of the regular season.
The Bills start the season mostly healthy—even Von Miller on PUP was cleared to play Week 1, but Brandon Beane opted to practically force him rest the first four games to make sure he’s ready to thrive in the stretch run. And that also means you can consider Micah Hyde and Tre White among the additions. The team also bolstered their o-line (well, at least the interior), while adding often starter level depth at RB, WR, TE, DL, and DB.
Let’s look at the match-up, position-by-position:
Quarterback
Despite the Jets’ new QB having four MVPs to Josh Allen’s zero, this may be the easiest group to put in the Bills column. Aaron Rodgers has been elite as of just two years ago, and even a diminished Rodgers will be better than anything the Jets have had in ages. That said, a months-from-40 QB off a down year is far from a sure thing. Also, even when at the top of his game, Rodgers is notorious for having a bad first week.
Josh Allen, on the other hand… well, is there anything more that needs to be said? Unless his burgeoning fame goes to his head, he’s poised to have his best season. There’s a solid chance his UCL bothered him more than anyone let on last year, and this year number 17 looks focused as ever to possibly start to catch up on MVP count.
Advantage: Buffalo
Running Backs
This balance tips the other way, and pretty hard. Breece Hall is coming off an ACL and may be a bit slower than his rookie season. However, the glimpse we got of Hall flashed his potential to be one of the tops at his position. Meanwhile, the Jets quietly inked Dalvin Cook, who may have passed his prime, but while his YPC have gone steadily down, he still racked up over 1100 yards and has reached quadruple digits four years in a row.
However, the Bills running game may be a bit underrated. The Bills had their own promising rookie last year in Dalvin’s younger brother. James Cook had an underrated season last year with 5.7 ypc his rookie season and there’s a good chance he comes into his own as RB1. While it was sad to lose Singletary, the RB room may actually be improved. Ex-Pat Damien Harris, whose career has practically been an audition for the Bills, is one of the league’s better goal line backs (15 TDs in 2021). Meanwhile, third back Latavius Murray has managed to elude Father Time so far. He has the second-most TDs of any active running back, and topped 700 yards last year, despite missing a chunk of the season.
Advantage: New York
Pass Catchers
This one would be much closer for the Jets if we were just talking wide receivers. The Bills would arguably still hold the edge, but it would be razor thin. Both teams are led by elite WRs. Stefon Diggs may be the best route-runners in football, and has made the Pro Bowl every year in Buffalo. Garrett Wilson, while earlier in his career, was the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year and is honing similar route-running skills which may one day rival Diggs.
In both cases, there’s a sizeable dropoff to the rest of the WR room. For the Bills, Gabriel Davis was 33rd overall in receiving yards, but was second in the league in drops. On the Jets side, the speedy Mecole Hardman has endless potential, but has never had the breakout season everyone’s expected (and that’s with Patrick Mahomes throwing to him before moving to the Jets this offseason). As for the rest of the roster, the Bills have young players with potential, while the Jets loaded up on ex-Packer vets—the same ones Rodgers complained about in 2022.
It’s at the tight end position where the Bills extend their lead here. Dawson Knox went to his first Pro Bowl last year and has been the epitome of clutch. The addition of first rounder Dalton Kincaid portends a reinvention of the Bills’ whole offense as a slot receiver in a tight end’s body. On the Jets side, they are not horrible, just not thrilling. Tyler Conklin has been consistently useful, with over 500 yards and exactly three TDs both of the last two years. Meanwhile, ex-Lion C.J. Ozumah has the potential to thrive in his new environment.
Advantage: Buffalo
Offensive Line
The offensive line is certainly not the strength of either team. The Bills have been struggling to get that together and there’s many reasons to believe this year could be better, but there’s also ample reason to believe it could still be a liability. Two-time Pro Bowler Dion Dawkins has been mostly a rock at left tackle, although he looked off in the pre-season. Hope springs eternal for right tackle Spencer Brown, and while maybe it’s a low bar, he looked a bit better this pre-season, especially in the run game. However, he’s still got a lot to prove to even get to adequate.
The interior is an entirely different story as the Bills have new players on either side of Mitch Morse, who earned his first Pro Bowl nod last year. Connor McGovern, while not a world-beater, should be an improvement over Rodger Saffold, a once above average o-lineman whose ability simply fell off a cliff in 2022, at left guard. Meanwhile, Bills were pleasantly surprised to see first-round graded O’Cyrus Torrence fall to them at the end of the second round. Torrence beasted out in the pre-season and will start at left guard on day one. With free agent David Edwards and holdover Ryan Bates, guard may be the deepest position on the Bills roster.
The Jets have similar problems at tackle, where RT Mekhi Becton has never lived up to his draft position in the rare time he’s been healthy, while LT Duane Brown has been a shining star in the league, but at 38, may not have much left in the tank. Both are, you guessed it, questionable this week (but will probably play).
Similar to the Bills, the Jets’ interior is more promising. Alijah Vera-Tucker has looked every inch the first round guard he was, at least when healthy. Laken Tomlinson has missed just one game in his career (in 2017) and is zero concern at left guard. At center, Joe Tippman was a 2023 2nd round pick and given the Jets 2022 hit rate, there’s reason to believe he could hold down the position for years. They also have their own Connor McGovern.
My temptation is to give the Bills the edge, but really it’s impossible to say what these lines will be. It is safe to say that both teams’ fans are going to be nervous every time the ball is snapped, in spite of their savvy QBs.
Advantage: Push
Defensive Line
And here’s even more reasons for fans’ frayed nerves on each snap. Both of these teams have ferocious front fours. The Bills quietly have a potentially awe-inspiring D-line, even minus future Hall of Famer Von Miller. Gregory Rousseau is one step away from becoming a force. He would have likely achieved double-digit sacks if not for a five-game injury, and the 6 foot 7 beast has been oppressive against the run from day one. Leonard Floyd was a great last minute signing to man the other end until Miller’s return.
Meanwhile, 1-tech DaQuan Jones quietly drew double teams at one of the highest rates in the league, while Ed Oliver may have not reached his top ten draft tag (yet), he’s still an above average defender capable of disrupting games. There is no shortage of depth at DT, especially with the addtion of Poona Ford.
The Jets story is dominated by one man, one of multiple potential Defensive Players of the year on the jets, Quinnen Williams. The 2019 third overall pick has slowly progressed to become a wrecking crew who needs to be accounted for on every down. He’ll get his, but holding him to minimal disruption is key. The Bills may remember the Jets’ other DT from a disastrous one-year stint in Buffalo. He’s been better in New Jersey.
Their pass rush is led by a pair of young promising DEs drafted high in the last two years, Jermaine Johnson II and Will McDonald IV. The former showed huge flashes last year, while the latter shined in his first camp. However, we may want to worry most about John Franklin-Myers, who continually hassled Allen last year.
While Quinnen Williams is leagues ahead of anyone else mentioned, ultimately the Bills match the Jets with their depth and rotational skill, so…
Advantage: Push
Linebackers
Last year, this positional group would have been much, much closer. However, two-time Pro Bowler Tremaine Edmunds took 18 million a year to dominate the center of the field for the Chicago Bears. In his place is a bit of a mystery. Even knowing it will be last year’s third round pick Terrell Bernard does not help much as we haen’t seen much of him at MLB, nor do we know what scheme adjustments McDermott has in mind. 2022 All-Pro Matt Milano should be fine as the other LB.
Meanwhile, the Jets also tend to play two starting LBs more often than not, but both those linebackers are solid and have given the Bills fits in the past. C.J. Mosley was on the All-Pro list with Milano, and deservedly so. Quincy Williams is both the lesser known LB and the lesser known Williams on the defense, but don’t let that fool you.
Advantage: New York
Defensive Backs
Even with injuries to every single defensive back on the initial roster, and some off the street, except slot cornerback Taron Johnson, the defensive backs ranked amongst the top in the league. And in this game, they will be at full capacity. Sure, Micah Hyde was on the injury report, but his press conferences made it clear that he would be back there at safety with his fellow All-Pro Jordan Poyer.
Rumors of elite CB Tre White’s slippage post-return from yearlong ACL injury were greatly exaggerated. In his six games back, he had an INT, six passes defensed, and held opponents to a 55% completion percentage when he was targeted. Now, he’s had a year off. Across from him, much has been made about 2022 first rounder Kaiir Elam’s inability to secure the starting CB2 job. However, while it’s concerning, it likely had less to do with Elam’s failings than Christian Benford’s ascent. And the aforementioned Johnson has been named one of the top slot defenders by many.
It’s hard to argue that any backfield featuring last year’s rookie phenom cornerback (and Defensive Rookie of the Year) Sauce Gardner could be the lesser backfield, yet here we are. Gardner is the real deal and so good it does not even feel ridiculous to talk about Canton already. He will surely give Diggs fits. And it’s not that there’s not a lot of talent beside him (there very much is!), but it’s just not quite on the same level yet.
At safety, Jordan Whitehead is shaping up to be the Jets version of Hyde and Poyer, a savvy signing of a apparent role-player who in his second home blossoms into an under-the-radar, underrated gem. He is paired with second year man Tony Adams, an undrafted free agent who has soared up the ranks and earned rave reviews from Jets media. CB2 D.J. Reed and nickel back Michael Carter II quietly fit into DC Jeff Ulbrich’s plans last year, both putting up stellar numbers without attracting a ton of personal attention.
By the end of the season, the Jets DBs may prove to be the best in football, Sauce arguably is the best already, but for now…
Advantage: Buffalo
Special Teams
Bills had the #1 special teams by the DVOA method last year. Jets special teams are OK. I’m just gonna go with…
Advantage: Buffalo
These two teams match up well, and on paper, if everything goes well, the Jets will push the Bills (and Dolphins, ugh!) for the AFC East. This game, with all the symbolism and hype around it worries me. If the Jets pull it off, it does not necessarily mean that the Bills cannot win the division nor that they are on the decline, even if they are blown out. Similarly, if the Bills roar down the field and the defense flummoxes A-Rod and stops the run effectively and utterly dominate the Jets, that would not mean the Jets have not caught up. It’s been a weird first week of football.
That said, between Aaron Rodgers wild card status and propensity for laying an egg opening week, the new wrinkle of Dalton Kincaid and the chance it could solve a Jets defense that performed as well as any team did against the Josh Allen-led Bills offense, and the suspicion that McDermott’s taking the DC reins has mostly to do with his having some exciting new schemes, I’m confident that Buffalo will pull it off this week and the narrative will be that the Bills are who we thought they were in 2022.
Prediction: Bills 28, Jets 17
